Tuesday, January 18, 2011

Weekly Stock Report

This week's stock report, brought to you by your good friends at Around the Res:

Stock Up
  1. Reggie Jackson: The Co-ACC Player of the Week scored an average of 25.5 points per game last week. He may have also opened some eyes along the way. I don't care how many college basketball games Danny Ainge attends. When someone goes off for 29 against an ACC opponent in front of you, you give them a second look. Right now I think there's a 50-50 shot that this will be Jackson's last year at BC. Next year might be a long one for Donahue.
  2. John Muse: Muse has been somewhat of a "playoff goalie" at BC in that he doesn't necessarily wow you with his regular season numbers, but is clutch once the tournament starts. This year, he is turning in a .937 save percentage, good for 16th best in the nation (minimum ten games played). By comparison, Muse had a .910 save percentage in last year's regular season, and has a stellar .934 career save percentage in the postseason. If we make the tournament, look out. Muse might be one of the most accomplished college hockey goalies in history by the time all is said and done.
  3. BC Baseball: Cabin fever is in full throttle here in Boston. I'm sick of the rain and snow and dreaming about a nice game of spring baseball. BC baseball will be getting a new stadium on the Brighton Campus within the next few years. The stadium is said to have a 2,000 seat capacity and a press box. C'mon BC!!! Give us some press credentials!

Stock Down
  1. Steve Donahue: If you aren't frustrated with BC's defense right now I don't know what to say. Simply put, the defense has not improved from last year. The biggest question surrounding the Donahue hire was whether or not he could put a stout defense on the floor game in and game out. If Donahue can't fix the defense, then he needs to find an assistant coach who can. BC has too much talent to let opponents score nearly 70 point per game. Terrible.
  2. Josh Southern: Although I told you that Southern's stock would go down once BC hit ACC play, I didn't think it would go down quite this much. Against NC State Southern went 1-6 with 5 total points while against Miami he fared better going 5-8 with 13 points. If BC can get Miami-like production from Southern consistently, I would be absolutely thrilled. However, if his NC State game becomes a pattern against the ACC "elite" this team will struggle. Personally, I think that Southern has become the second most important factor to this team after Jackson but he needs to prove himself against ACC big men.
  3. Future BC Bowl Destinations: We all know the tired argument about how BC doesn't travel well. While you may agree or disagree with that sentiment, perception is very often reality when it comes to which teams bowls choose to select (let's face it, bowls want to make money). The one good thing that BC has always had going for it is that we seemingly always bring in a good/excellent television audience. No more. Ratings from this year's BC-Nevada match-up were down over 40 percent when compared to last year's USC-BC game. This removes a major selling point from Gene's pitch for BC and will likely worsen our chances of being selected for a better bowl game in future years.


  1. I doubt Reggie will declare for the draft after this year, if only to get another stat-padding year under Donahue under his belt. Unless he gets injured or something freaky happens his stock won't go down from this year to next.

    Totally agree about the defensive issues - we are one of the worst teams in the nation (321st!) at forcing turnovers. Hopefully this is just Skinner residue, if you look at Donahue's Cornell teams they were at least middling on defense (while being much smaller and less athletic than BC).

  2. I'm not sure how much stat padding Reggie will be able to do if he comes back next year. Southern, Raji, Dunn, Paris, Trapani, and Elmore are all seniors. 8 of the 14 players on our roster graduate, and that might lead to a lot of double teams for Jackson. Consider that Rice averaged 21 points per game his junior year only to come back to BC to average 16.9 per game. If the team is worse, than Jackson's stats might go down, not up.

  3. Rice's supporting cast got better, not worse in his senior year - not the best comp. Rice's junior year is the definition of stat padding on a terrible team.

  4. I tend to agree with Mike C. - if anything, a worse team will mean more touches/shots/opportunities for Reggie (for better or worse). Sure, some teams might try to double team when he drives, but as long as we retain some three-point threats (as we will in Rubin and to some degree Moton) defenses won't be able to do that on a regular basis. Not to mention that you rarely see college teams consistently double-team individual players anyway.

    Rice's stats did go down his senior year, but that was largely due to the additions to the starting lineup of Sanders and Trapani. It's kind of apples and oranges to compare the senior years of the two (unless Donahue finds a recruit or transfer that has an immediate impact on the team, which is always possible).

  5. One more thing I forgot to mention - while all the graduating seniors might not change Reggie's stats that much (or might actually increase them), the team is obviously going to be a lot worse next year. So if Reggie doesn't want to bother playing for a crappy team, that would definitely be a reason for him to graduate early.

  6. They do have a transfer for next season - Humphrey. Hes been with the team since this past summer and will be eligible to play next year. Highly recruited out of high school but didnt do all that much in his first two years at Oregon. Hell be key next season for the team to be successful.

  7. That's a really good point. I had nearly forgotten about Humphrey. With Rubin, Humphrey, and Jackson we have the beginnings of a starting lineup. Who else do you see starting next year? All of our big men seem to be graduating.

  8. We are losing all the bigs on the team so the freshmen coming in are going to play big time minutes from the beginning.

    As I see it there are two options if Jackson stays:
    G Moton
    G Jackson
    G/F Humphrey
    F Ryan Anderson - the absolute jewel of the recruiting class, seems like hes pretty much ready for the ACC now
    C Caudill/Clifford - caudill seems like the more polished and ready center with Clifford still being pretty raw (and really pretty lean) I would guess that Caudill starts and Clifford ends up as the main big off the bench at both the PF/C

    Option 2
    G Jackson
    G Humphrey
    G/F Rubin
    F Anderson
    C Caudill

    In either situation, Elmore probably plays a main role of the bench at the 2/3 and Moton and Lonnie Jackson providing depth at the smaller guards


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