Tuesday, October 23, 2012

Head Coach Power Rankings 3.0

Less changes to the power rankings this week than last week.  I think my preferences are starting to settle in a little.  I'm still open to adding other guys as the season goes along, but I think the pecking order is more or less established at this point baring a major late-season collapse.  At this point I see this list as being composed of two tiers.  Tier one consists of the first six guys on this list, and I would be completely comfortable with any of them.  Tier two consists of coaches with flaws that BC would have to overlook to hire them.

Brad Bates' job will be to get a first tier candidate to come to Chestnut Hill.  It's hard to sell something you're not familiar with, but that's going to be Bates' job come the end of the year.  The media narrative, like it or not, is going to be that BC is a "tough job with little upside."  That is going to turn some candidates off, but ACC jobs are hard to come by.  If Pitt can attract Paul Chryst then we have no excuse for not getting a top-notch coach.

  1. Butch Jones: Cincinnati's inexplicable loss to Toledo probably means that Butch Jones won't be scooped up by an SEC school.  Cincinnati was inexplicably bad in its loss, and the team was clearly not as focused as it should have been with a perfect season on the line.  A loss to Louisville next week and Jones is definitely off the top spot.  The only thing that keeps him above Strong and Dykes at this point is his familiarity with our traditional recruiting grounds.  (Last week: 1)
  2. Charlie Strong:  The Strong-to-Arkansas rumors aren't going away anytime soon.  My problem with Strong right now is that Louisville really hasn't beaten anyone impressive (Kentucky, Missouri State, North Carolina, FIU, Southern Miss, Pitt, South Florida).  Four of their wins have come by one score or less.  That being said, I really can't knock a 7-0 record because Strong's team is doing everything it can to defeat the opponent in front of it, taking it one game at a time.  Luckily, Arkansas is going to take the decision on Strong out of BC's hands.  (Last week: 2)
  3. Sonny Dykes:  Air Raid.  Bring it to BC.  The only game I've seen Dykes coach was against TAMU.  They competed against an SEC opponent, and nearly won the game despite being down big early.  Tech was down 21-0 at the end of the first quarter but managed to only lose 59-57.  I never would have thought that La. Tech could compete with a legitimate SEC team, but here we are.  Again, the major question for Dykes is whether he can fit with BC culturally and whether he can recruit north of the Mason-Dixon Line.  Big risk, big reward.  I'm not sure that Bates has the stomach for this one.  (Last week: 4) 
  4. Kliff Kingsbury:  Introducing a former NFL quarterback, current Texas A&M offensive coordinator, the 2011 offensive coordinator of the year, air raid disciple, and the mind behind the 2011 Houston passing attack.  Impressive credentials for someone who's only 33 years old.  He has the youth and the energy to turn BC around.  College football is becoming increasingly about the "in" team.  Recruits are lining up for FSU and Oregon because those are the "in" teams.  Texas A&M might out-recruit UT in the near future because it is becoming an "in" team.  I think this hire is going to seem like a bigger risk than it really is.  I also think that BC is going to have some problems hiring someone who is only 33.  Kingbury might have the lowest floor for any coach on this list, but he definitely has the highest ceiling.  (Last week: not ranked)
  5. Bob Diaco:  People are really high up on Diaco but I'm not entirely sold yet.  Candidate A's defenses are ranked 15, 18, 20, and 10 over a four year period.  Candidate B's defenses are ranked 61, 8, 13, and 11 over a four year period.  Obviously candidate A is Spaz and candidate B is Diaco.  Looking at these numbers I would agree that Diaco is running better defenses than Spaz did, but only marginally.  I'm not going to take it away from Diaco that he's coaching better players because he's known to be a great recruiter, something BC could really use right now.  I would be fine with Diaco is Bates wanted to move in this direction.  He would be a safe hire.  I would just prefer someone with an offensive background.  (Last week: 5)
  6. Paul Chryst:  The up and down year for Chryst continued this week with a win against Buffalo.  Pitt has gone from an awful team to a mediocre one in Chryst's first year.  No one expected Chryst to achieve instant success at Pitt where so many other head coaches have failed.  3-4 is very respectable at this point in the year.  If Chryst makes a bowl game, which seems unlikely given that they still have ND on their schedule, he'll instantly be a hot commodity again.  Chryst is the last of my top tier candidates, but the only reason why he's last is because the ACC will pressure BC not to kill Pitt's staggering football program.  (Last week: 3) 
  7. Mike Sherman:  I have nothing new to add about Sherman other than that he would be a quality selection if all else fails.  He's a clear number one candidate on the second tier.  (Last week: 6)
  8. Steve Addazio:  Temple is having an average year, which makes Addazio look like an average coach.  You never like to see regression in a coach's second year.  (Last week: 7) 
  9. Pete Carmichael:  Carmichael would be higher on this list if I thought that BC was open to hiring from the NFL.  Conventional wisdom would say that if BC wanted someone from the NFL it would have already fired Spaz.  We'll probably stick to coaches with college experience, especially since no one really knows what to make of Carmichael anymore.  (Last week: 8)
  10. Mark Stoops:  A classic case of a blogger bowing to the masses.  Mark Stoops keeps showing up in my comments section.  I've entertained the idea of Mark Stoops in the past, but every time I look at his candidacy seriously I come to the conclusion that his last name might be misleading people.  Yes, his defense is ranked 9th in the country, but is anyone suggesting that we look at the defensive coordinators from South Carolina, Michigan State, or Oregon, all of whom have arguably better defenses?  Stoops isn't even known as a good recruiter.  The best I've heard from Fisher about Stoops' recruiting prowess is that he "holds his own."  Not exactly a ringing endorsement.   (Last week: not ranked)

1 comment:

  1. A real dark horse candidate could be Toledo coach Matt Campbell. Very young. Could be someone to stick around for a while. Strong ties to Ohio.

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