Friday, December 7, 2012

How Quick Can We Turn This Around?

Now that we have a new head coach and the beginnings of a staff I'm being asked more frequently what my expectations for next year are.  First, I have to say that I'm very impressed that Addazio is already on the recruiting trail, trying to keep Spaz's recruits.  Some recruits were excited to play for Doug Martin, and those guys are likely getting preferential treatment right now to shore up their commitments.  I also wouldn't be shocked to see Addazio add three or four more quality guys to this class.  If he can bring either Matt Barone (17th ranked OL) or Jarred Alwan (44th ranked LB) with him from Temple that would certainly accelerate the rebuilding process. 

In the next few years I expect Addazio to make red-shirting players a priority.  If we're going to play a more power-oriented style of football we need bigger, more mature players.  That means we need guys who have been hitting the weight room for four or five years.  That extra year makes a huge difference but it will mean some short-term sacrifices that Spaz never felt secure enough to make.  This likely means that progress will be slow, especially in year two, before speeding up in years three and four.

2013 Schedule:

Home:
Stony Brook
Syracuse
Wake Forrest
NC State
FSU
Georgia Tech

Away:
Southern California
Army
Maryland
Clemson
North Carolina
Virginia Tech

There's no reason why we can't get four wins next year, even if some key starters transfer.  Army, Wake Forrest,  Stony Brook, and Maryland should all be easy wins.  We will have a decent opportunity to knock off any of Nc. State, UNC, Va. Tech, and Georgia Tech as well.  This team could get as many as six wins if everything goes smoothly, which would certainly go a long way to calming the fan base.

I do think that the team will struggle in year two, simply because of scholarship numbers.  Spaz's horrid scholarship management has left this team struggling for manpower.  As other bloggers have pointed out, BC has basically been playing with the equivalent on light NCAA scholarship sanctions for a few years now.  Because of how many open scholarships we have and because of how few incoming commitments we current have (17 according to ESPN), I expect the 2014 recruiting class to be the maximum 25.

If we make the long-term commitment to red-shirt these players BC will be very short on depth in 2014, which will likely have some impact on our record.  Red-shirting players will certainly help this team develop in the right way, and will pay dividends come 2017 and 2018, near the end of Addazio's initial contract.  If I was to guess wins per year under Addazio:

2013:  5-7
2014:  5-7
2015:  7-6
2016:  8-5

No matter what happens, Addazio will get four years to try and right the ship.  It simply isn't reasonable to hand him this mess and expect him to clean it up in two years.  If he gets us back to eight wins by 2016 I would be very satisfied with the progress of the program.

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